Tropical Disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico Expected to Develop into Depression

A tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico is strengthening and is likely to form into a tropical or subtropical depression soon, with high chances for development. Florida and parts of Mexico are expected to experience gusty winds and heavy rainfall, with flooding concerns due to saturated ground. Meteorologists advise close monitoring of the situation as it progresses eastward or northeastward.

The tropical disturbance currently located in the Gulf of Mexico has been reported to be gaining strength, with expectations of its development into either a tropical or subtropical depression in the forthcoming days, as indicated by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). In a recent update issued at 2 a.m. on Saturday, forecasters highlighted an 80% likelihood of this system evolving within the next week and a 50% probability of further development within the next 48 hours. Despite its broad area of low pressure, the system is generating winds that are “just below gale force.” Meteorologist Rebecca Barry from Max Defender 8 explained, “We expect a tropical storm or a Category 1 hurricane to track across the state late Tuesday night into Wednesday.” The disturbance is anticipated to acquire the name Milton, in accordance with this year’s naming convention. Authorities have advised residents in Florida, along with those in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and the Bahamas, to closely monitor the progression of the system as it advances either eastward or northeastward across the Gulf. Barry further emphasized the uncertainty surrounding the specific areas that may experience the highest impact, stating that this will depend significantly on the location of landfall. The NHC foresees gusty winds coupled with heavy rain impacting Florida and parts of Mexico starting late this weekend and continuing into early next week. Chief Meteorologist Jeff Berardelli from Max Defender 8 has warned that heavy precipitation is expected to commence on Sunday as moisture begins to reach Florida’s coastline. A pattern of wet episodes with intermittent dry spells is likely to persist through Tuesday. Given that the soil is already heavily saturated after what has been one of the rainiest wet seasons on record, Berardelli noted that any substantial downpours could result in flooding conditions. The precise trajectory of the storm and its intensity upon reaching Florida by Wednesday remain uncertain; however, projections suggest that Central to South Florida may receive between 5 to 10 inches of rainfall. Additionally, a new tropical wave has been detected off the coast of Africa, holding a 30% chance of development as it progresses across the Atlantic within the next week, with some potential for further formation. In the Open Atlantic, Hurricane Kirk remains vigorous, with the NHC forecasting that large swells will approach the U.S. East Coast by Sunday. Meanwhile, Hurricane Leslie, positioned in the Tropical East Atlantic, has experienced slight strengthening as it moves west-northwestward.

The Gulf of Mexico is frequently subject to tropical disturbances, especially during hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30. As these disturbances develop, they can escalate into tropical storms or hurricanes, prompting the National Hurricane Center to monitor their progress closely. Residents of coastal regions are urged to stay informed and prepare accordingly.

In summary, the ongoing tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico is on track to potentially develop into a tropical depression or storm, with significant impacts anticipated for Florida and parts of Mexico including heavy rainfall and gusty winds. It is advisable for residents in affected areas to remain vigilant and prepared as meteorological conditions evolve over the coming days.

Original Source: www.wfla.com