Hurricane Season to Reawaken in Its Final Month

As November unfolds, three tropical disturbances in the Atlantic, particularly in the western Caribbean, are closely monitored for potential development into tropical storms. Historical trends suggest that although November is usually a quieter month for hurricanes, this year’s unusual patterns indicate a possibility of continued activity, with atmospheric conditions shifting in ways that may favor storm formation.

As the calendar moves further into November, the Atlantic hurricane season remains a point of concern with three areas identified as possible tropical cyclone developments. The National Hurricane Center indicates that a significant area of disturbance is situated in the western Caribbean, with an elevated probability of evolving into a tropical depression late this weekend or early next week. Following this development, there exists a potential for strengthening into a tropical storm. The precise timing and location of this formation will be critical, as it will influence subsequent trajectories of the storm. If this system materializes, it is anticipated to be named Patty, with future storms to follow under the names Rafael and Sara. Climatological projections suggest that the system’s path may lead it toward the Gulf of Mexico, raising concerns of substantial rainfall and gusty winds impacting not only western Caribbean regions but also parts of Central America and Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula within the week. Notably, the US Gulf Coast might benefit from upper-level winds that are expected to emerge, potentially dismantling any developing systems before they reach land. Conversely, two other identified areas of concern presently exhibit low chances of becoming tropical systems shortly. Recent storm systems caused severe weather in Puerto Rico, with record rainfall impacting various territories in the northeastern Caribbean. While this weather disturbance possesses a marginal capability to organize further, it could initiate additional flooding in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands through the upcoming days. Typically, the hurricane season witnesses a decline in activity during November; however, this year has deviated from established patterns. Thus far, the current season recorded above-average occurrences of named storms and hurricanes, including five hurricanes that impacted the United States despite a lull in activity during the usual peak period. Historical data reveals that statistically, storms intensifying in November are uncommon, particularly those affecting the US coastline. The climate factors conducive to storm development in November tend to prevail in the Caribbean and central Atlantic regions, where warm waters remain available, coinciding with less atmospheric disruption. Notably, the Gulf of Mexico generally does not serve as a hotspot for tropical systems this late in the season, given that winds disrupting storm formation generally intensify as fall progresses. For storms to remain viable in the Gulf at this time, they require exceptionally warm waters; while the Gulf is not as warm as in earlier hurricane seasons, it still possesses higher-than-average temperatures for November, potentially allowing for continued tropical activity.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30, typically exhibiting a peak in activity during late summer and early fall. November generally sees a decline in storm formation; however, anomalies in weather and climate conditions can lead to unusual activity. This year’s season has already recorded more named storms than average, prompting caution among meteorologists and experts in storm prediction. As climatic conditions evolve, including ocean temperature and atmospheric wind patterns, the potential for tropical systems can persist through late November and into December, despite the season’s official conclusion.

In summary, while hurricane season is statistically drawing to a close, this November poses unusual potential for continued tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic, specifically in the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. With disturbances showing signs of development, combined with generally warm ocean temperatures, the season may very well defy its typical pattern, requiring vigilance and preparedness along affected coastal regions. It is critical for communities in potential impact areas to remain informed and ready for any developing storms as the season progresses toward its official end.

Original Source: www.cnn.com