Turkey’s Search for a Political Solution in Syria: A New Approach to the Kurdish Issue

Turkey is reassessing its Syria strategy due to military stalemates and external pressures from Russia and the U.S. It is exploring dialogue with Assad and reconsidering its Kurdish policy to address security concerns. However, tensions with regional actors remain high, and potential cooperation with the U.S. may influence the outcome of Turkey’s pursuits in Syria.

Turkey currently finds itself at a significant crossroads concerning its strategy in Syria. Faced with a stalemate on the battlefield, coupled with formidable opposition from Russia and economic pressures from the United States, Ankara is exploring new political avenues. This includes a possible reassessment of its approach towards the predominantly Kurdish forces in Syria, particularly the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) that align with the Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK), a group labeled a terrorist organization by Turkey and its allies.

Turkey’s strategy has been multifaceted, attempting to eliminate the YPG, which is dominant in the SDF, while also considering unorthodox dialogue with Abdullah Ocalan, the imprisoned PKK leader. This dual-track strategy signifies a potential shift in Turkey’s Kurdish policy, as it seeks a resolution to its security concerns given the PKK’s increasing presence in Syria. Moreover, the geopolitical tensions in the region demand that Turkey reassess its position, particularly with escalating conflicts involving Iran, Israel, and the U.S.

Since 2015, Turkey’s primary focus in Syria has been to secure its borders against the YPG. Despite conducting military operations between 2016 and 2019 aimed at creating a safety buffer, Turkey’s efforts have been met with significant resistance from both Russia and the U.S. As such, Turkey’s military maneuvers have mostly been thwarted by diplomatic interventions from Moscow, which has bolstered the SDF with troop deployments and an air presence. Concurrently, the U.S. has condemned Turkey’s actions in Syria, promising sanctions to prevent further military incursions, thereby complicating Ankara’s situation further.

In a recent diplomatic attempt, Turkish officials engaged with their Syrian counterparts under the auspices of Russia and Iran, yet these talks did not result in substantial outcomes. This impasse has prompted Turkey to reconsider engaging directly with President Bashar al-Assad’s government, recognizing that cooperation may be necessary to address the shared threat posed by Kurdish militias. Nevertheless, engagement remains tenuous due to ALSAD’s inconsistent alignment with Turkey’s interests.

Meanwhile, Turkey remains vigilant against the prospect of an autonomous Kurdish region emerging on its southern border, which it considers a direct threat that could exacerbate separatist sentiments domestically. This concern is heightened by fears over potential conflicts involving Israel that could spill over into Syria, creating further humanitarian crises and security challenges for Turkey, particularly with the influx of refugees that such conflicts would generate.

In a notable development, MHP leader Devlet Bahceli recently proposed that Ocalan could address the Turkish Parliament, suggesting a potential politicization of the Kurdish issue. Ocalan has indicated a readiness to transition the Kurdish struggle from armed conflict to political discourse. However, there are doubts regarding Erdogan’s recognition of Bahceli’s comments, and the complexities surrounding these initiatives may impede any meaningful dialogue going forward.

The future of this dialogue remains uncertain, particularly given the failure of previous attempts at peace with the PKK. Still, the United States presents an opportunity for Turkey and could play a supportive role in managing the situation in Syria without becoming directly involved in Turkish-PKK negotiations. Therefore, careful navigation of these relationships is critical for Turkey as it seeks to restore stability in its border regions while addressing internal and external pressures.

Turkey’s geopolitical strategy concerning Syria centers on its national security, particularly relating to the Kurdish forces that operate in the region. The PKK has long been a source of conflict for Turkey, and the recent developments in Syria have compelled Ankara to reevaluate its approach in light of both Russian and American influences. The evolving situation also reflects Turkey’s broader ambitions within a complicated Middle Eastern political landscape, where external powers continuously interfere in regional matters, contributing to Turkey’s military and diplomatic dilemmas while it seeks to manage its Kurdish issue amidst international scrutiny.

In conclusion, Turkey is at a pivotal moment in its Syrian strategy, actively seeking diplomatic solutions to a multifaceted crisis exacerbated by external pressures from Russia and the United States. The potential shift in Turkey’s Kurdish policy, underscored by recent political developments, illustrates Ankara’s attempts to navigate both its security concerns and regional complexities. The uncertain future of dialogue with Syria under Assad indicates serious challenges ahead. Nevertheless, the cooperation with the United States could provide a pathway toward mitigating tensions in the region, contingent upon careful management of Turkey’s internal and external relationships.

Original Source: www.atlanticcouncil.org