Impact of the 2023/2024 El Niño Event on Global Weather and Vulnerable Communities

The December 2024 update highlights the 2023/2024 El Niño as one of the strongest on record, resulting in severe weather events including widespread droughts and floods that impacted over 60 million people globally, particularly in vulnerable regions. Southern Africa was notably affected by extreme drought, while flood-related disasters displaced millions in East Africa and beyond. The multifaceted effects of El Niño led to food insecurity, health crises, and economic disruptions, underscoring the urgency of addressing these challenges.

The 2023/2024 El Niño episode marked one of the five most intense occurrences in recorded history, characterized by a notable 2°C elevation in sea surface temperatures across the Pacific Ocean. The World Weather Attribution attributed numerous extreme weather events from September 2023 to May 2024 primarily to El Niño. This period saw significant drought afflicting several regions, including Central America, Southern Africa, and parts of Asia, alongside severe flooding in Brazil, Dubai, and East Africa. The resulting impacts were devastating, especially for vulnerable populations already struggling with climate change and socio-economic challenges.

Over 60 million individuals, particularly within the most susceptible communities, suffered the adverse effects of El Niño-related phenomena. The repercussions were most pronounced in Southern Africa, where an estimated 30 million people faced crippling drought, leading to dire food insecurity and loss of livelihoods. In East Africa, flooding displaced upwards of 5 million individuals, while more than 4 million in the Philippines struggled under severe drought conditions. Central America reported 1.3 million affected, and flooding in Brazil left over 2 million people in distress.

The ramifications of El Niño transcended mere food shortages, as intersecting shocks exacerbated the vulnerabilities encountered by these communities. Health crises emerged, with outbreaks of cholera and malaria surging in areas afflicted by floods. Furthermore, the risks of protection, particularly for women and children, intensified due to displacement and growing poverty, which also heightened incidents of gender-based violence. Economic instability permeated these regions, further disrupting social frameworks and the livelihoods of those already in precarious situations.

El Niño is a climate phenomenon characterized by the warming of surface waters in the Pacific Ocean, leading to global weather pattern alterations. Its counterpart, La Niña, generally features cooler temperatures in the same region. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) oscillates between these two phases, impacting various geographical regions differently. Historically, El Niño events have been correlated with severe climatic fluctuations including droughts, floods, and subsequent socio-economic ramifications worldwide. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for assessing the ongoing humanitarian crises instigated by recent El Niño occurrences, particularly in vulnerable regions that experience compounding difficulties from climate change, conflict, and economic stagnation.

The 2023/2024 El Niño event has been unparalleled in its severity, impacting millions globally through extreme weather phenomena. Vulnerable communities in Southern Africa and East Africa faced the brunt of these challenges, as droughts and floods devastated their livelihoods. The interplay of climate change, health crises, and socio-economic factors forms a complex backdrop to the struggles faced by these populations. As the world observes these unfolding events, it remains imperative to enhance adaptive strategies and provide the necessary assistance to mitigate the humanitarian fallout from such climate phenomena.

Original Source: reliefweb.int