Cyclones Remain Consistent in Number but Intensify Due to Climate Change

While the number of tropical cyclones has remained steady since 1980, their intensity has significantly increased, with average wind speeds rising 5 percent. The proportion of category five storms has surged by 40 percent within the last decade. Experts link this trend to climate change, emphasizing the socioeconomic vulnerabilities that exacerbate the human cost of these increasingly severe storms.

The global climate has witnessed a consistent rate of tropical cyclones over the past 40 years; however, the intensity of these storms has escalated considerably. Annual averages indicate that approximately 47 tropical cyclones, also known as hurricanes or typhoons, have occurred since 1980. Data from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), corroborated by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), reveals that while the frequency of such storms remains stable, their potency has markedly increased.

Analysis of climatic data from 1981 to 2010 compared to the recent decade indicates a rise in average maximum wind speeds of cyclones, increasing from 182 kilometers per hour to 192 kilometers per hour—a 5 percent increment. Moreover, the occurrence of cyclones reaching wind speeds above 250 kilometers per hour has surged from approximately 10 percent to 14 percent, a notable 40 percent increase in category five cyclones classified on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

The findings align with warnings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which asserts that climate change is likely to heighten the occurrence of the most destructive cyclones, particularly of categories four and five. Robert Vautard, a climatologist and IPCC official, emphasized that the humanitarian crises caused by cyclones are predominantly influenced by socio-economic factors such as poverty and insufficient protection measures for vulnerable populations.

In 2024, tropical activity was significant, with 42 cyclones recorded by mid-December, including 19 that made landfall. Among these, Hurricane Milton was notably severe, striking the U.S. coast with winds reaching 278 kilometers per hour. The West Pacific experienced extensive damages, subjected to 15 typhoons, six of which impacted the Philippines, while Cyclone Chido struck Mayotte, resulting in numerous casualties and injuries.

The underlying trend indicates an urgent need to address the socio-economic vulnerabilities exacerbating the impacts of these increasingly intense storms as climate variability continues to pose a significant global threat.

The article addresses the ongoing trend in tropical cyclones globally, highlighting that the number of cyclones has remained steady over the past few decades while their intensity has increased significantly. This phenomenon is attributed to climate change, as supported by data from reputable organizations like NOAA and WMO, which provide insights into shifting patterns in cyclone strength and frequency. The specific focus on statistical comparisons showcases a concerning uptick in the severity of storms, underscoring potential humanitarian implications, especially for vulnerable populations.

The evidence gathered illustrates a critical escalation in the intensity of tropical cyclones, despite a consistent frequency over recent decades. This trend is consistent with climate change projections and underscores significant humanitarian risks that need addressing, especially in impoverished regions. As global climatic conditions continue to evolve, concerted efforts are required to enhance resilience and preparedness for the impending challenges posed by more potent cyclones.

Original Source: www.rfi.fr