Current Updates on Tropical Cyclones and Disturbances in the Pacific Ocean

The Pacific Disaster Center has reported two active tropical cyclones as of January 30, 2025. Tropical Cyclone 11S is struggling with adverse weather conditions, while Tropical Cyclone 12S (Elvis) is set to undergo extratropical transition. Additionally, two areas of disturbed weather, Invest 96P and Invest 99S, show low potential for development.

As of January 30, 2025, the Pacific Disaster Center reports two active tropical cyclones, Tropical Cyclone 11S, situated approximately 590 nautical miles south-southwest of Diego Garcia, and Tropical Cyclone 12S (Elvis), located about 619 nautical miles east-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius. In contrast, there are currently no tropical cyclones active in the Northeast and Central Pacific Oceans, marking the conclusion of their respective hurricane seasons for 2024.

Tropical Cyclone 11S is struggling to maintain its intensity of 35 knots due to adverse weather conditions such as strong easterly shear and dry air intrusion. Satellite imagery indicates that the storm’s central convective activity has diminished, leaving the low-level circulation exposed. Despite these challenges, the forecast suggests TC 11S will slow down over the next 24 hours but may regain strength as it moves towards Madagascar over the next 72 hours, provided it survives the initial adverse conditions.

Conversely, Tropical Cyclone 12S (Elvis) is currently producing sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of up to 50 knots. Recent satellite animations show an organized low-level circulation center, which has recently reignited deep convection to its southwest quadrant. The cyclone is likely to undergo extratropical transition within 48 hours due to increasing shear, ultimately weakening as it transforms into a gale-force extratropical low.

In addition to these tropical cyclones, there are areas of disturbed weather categorized as Invest 96P and Invest 99S. Invest 96P is located southeast of Cairns, Australia, presenting a poorly organized low-level circulation center, with maximum sustained winds of approximately 18 to 23 knots. Its potential for significant development remains low. Meanwhile, Invest 99S, approximately 243 nautical miles south-southwest of Christmas Island, exhibits a fragmented structure with maximum sustained winds estimated at 20 to 25 knots and a similarly low potential for development.

Tropical cyclones pose significant threats to regions surrounding the Pacific and Indian Oceans, with their formation and intensity influenced by various environmental factors including sea temperatures and wind shear. Understanding these weather phenomena is crucial for disaster preparedness and response. The Pacific Disaster Center routinely monitors cyclone activities and provides updates, especially as the seasons change and cyclonic activities fluctuate.

Currently, the reports indicate the presence of two active tropical cyclones, 11S and 12S (Elvis), while two disturbances labeled as Invest 96P and Invest 99S show potential for development, albeit low. TC 11S faces challenges in maintaining its intensity, whereas TC 12S is anticipated to transition into an extratropical low. Regular updates from the Pacific Disaster Center will continue to be vital for monitoring these weather systems.

Original Source: www.pdc.org