The Positive Outlook for Food Security in Tunisia: Key Developments for 2025

Tunisia’s food security benefits from improved rainfall leading to better 2025 cereal crop conditions. Cereal production in 2024 showed significant recovery compared to the previous drought year. Import requirements are projected to be below average, and food inflation has eased significantly since mid-2023.

The food security outlook for Tunisia indicates positive developments due to recent weather patterns and economic measures. The 2025 cereal crop conditions have improved significantly owing to abundant rainfall experienced in January. This enhancement comes after a challenging planting period characterized by dry weather in late 2024, with financial backing from the National Bank poised to expand the planted areas and support crop yields in the upcoming season.

Comparatively, cereal production saw a substantial recovery in 2024, with output estimated at approximately 1.5 million tonnes. This figure marks an increase to nearly three times the output affected by drought in 2023, although it remains about 6 percent below the five-year average. Improved weather conditions between December 2023 and April 2024 facilitated crop growth in Tunisia’s northern and central regions, contributing to this recovery.

Forecasts for 2025 indicate that cereal import requirements will remain below average at 3.5 million tonnes for the 2024/25 marketing year. Notably, wheat imports, which account for over half of total cereal imports, are anticipated at around 2 million tonnes, slightly above the average level, bolstered by the robust domestic wheat production in 2024.

Regarding food inflation, there has been a significant decline through 2024, culminating in a rate of approximately 7 percent in February 2025, down from a peak of 16 percent in May 2023. This decrease is attributed to fluctuating prices, including notable increases in meat and poultry, while oil prices saw a reduction of about 16.2 percent.

In summary, Tunisia’s food security landscape for 2025 shows a promising recovery in cereal production following adverse conditions in prior years. The overall reduction in food inflation, coupled with anticipated lower import requirements, suggests a favorable shift in the nation’s agricultural and economic outlook. Continued monitoring of weather patterns and market conditions will be crucial for sustaining this positive trend.

Original Source: reliefweb.int