Projected Multi-Hazard Displacement in Somalia for Q2 2025

Somalia’s Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan for Q2 2025 identifies 30 districts with an expected total of 124,249 displacements. The top five districts are Banadir, Baydhaba, Luuq, Kismaayo, and Afmadow, with drought and conflict driving the movement of people.

In the second quarter of 2025, Somalia plans to focus on 30 districts under the Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan (HNRP). Notably, 11 of these districts rank among the top 15 that are expected to record the highest number of displacements, with a total projection of 124,249 displacements for the quarter.

The top five districts forecasted for displacements include Banadir, Baydhaba, Luuq, Kismaayo, and Afmadow, expecting a combined total of 95,689 displacements, representing 41% of the overall projected displacements. Specifically, Banadir is set to experience 39,251 displacements (an increase of 4%), followed by Baydhaba with 21,053 displacements (increased by 3%), Luuq with 13,098 (an increase of 12%), Kismaayo with 12,862 (a 7% increase), and Afmadow with 9,425 (a 19% increase).

Primarily, drought is anticipated to be the leading cause of displacements, yet conflict will also contribute significantly. In Luuq, 56% of projected displacements are expected to originate from within the district itself, while Afmadow will see 39% of its displacements coming from the same district due to ongoing conflicts.

In summary, Somalia’s humanitarian strategy for April to June 2025 highlights significant displacement concerns across several districts. A total of 124,249 displacements are forecasted, with drought as the main driver, alongside conflict influencing movements in specific regions. The focus remains on targeted assistance in the most affected areas to address these anticipated needs.

Original Source: reliefweb.int