Recent Developments in Sudan’s Civil War: Military Gains and Humanitarian Crisis

The Sudanese army has gained control over Khartoum amid ongoing conflict with the RSF, marking significant military victories. However, the humanitarian crisis worsens as fighting continues, affecting millions. Experts express concerns over potential fragmentation of the country without a resolution in sight.

The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) has recently achieved significant victories in Khartoum against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), as the ongoing civil war approaches its two-year mark. Despite these gains, the continued fighting indicates that peace is not imminent. The government’s recent control of key areas, including the airport and the presidential palace in Khartoum, is seen as a potential turning point in the conflict.

The SAF celebrated these successes this month, with Army Chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan proclaiming Khartoum as ‘free’ after retaking the airport from RSF forces. This airport had initially fallen to the RSF at the onset of the war, granting them a crucial advantage. The retaking of the presidential palace was deemed a significant symbolic victory, further bolstering the SAF’s authority in the capital.

The SAF’s control over Khartoum may shift the battlefield dynamics, possibly leading to increased leverage in future peace negotiations, although the SAF has yet to engage in talks. The RSF previously utilized the airport for logistics and propaganda, allowing them to present a challenge to state authority. Now, with the SAF in control, there is potential for improved management of supply lines and strategic initiatives.

Nonetheless, the underlying tensions that ignited the war remain unresolved. The struggle for power between al-Burhan and RSF chief Mohamed Hamdan ‘Hemedti’ Dagalo continues, with both sides maintaining vast territories and engaging in persistent clashes across various regions, including Darfur and Kordofan. The combatants have escalated their tactics to massive airstrikes, contributing to significant civilian casualties.

The humanitarian ramifications of the conflict are dire, resulting in one of the worst crises worldwide. Around 12 million individuals have fled, many seeking refuge in bordering nations. Food shortages plague nearly 25 million citizens, with 600,000 facing imminent starvation, according to recent UN reports. As aid access remains blocked, agricultural production has diminished, and the collapse of the health system continues to worsen conditions.

Outlook assessments suggest potential partitioning of Sudan or its de facto fragmentation, especially following the RSF’s charter for a breakaway government. The international community remains concerned about the ongoing situation, reflecting on lessons from South Sudan’s past. In the near future, a prolonged war of attrition appears likely as neither side is prepared to compromise, despite calls for negotiations from external stakeholders.

In conclusion, Sudan’s civil war continues to have significant humanitarian consequences and is currently marked by recent military successes for the Sudanese Armed Forces in Khartoum. However, the underlying tensions between the SAF and the RSF persist, complicating the prospect for peace. The conflict has led to widespread displacement, food shortages, and a collapse of critical infrastructure. Experts warn that without resolution, the country may face fragmentation, echoing historical precedents. The international community’s role in facilitating dialogue will be crucial as the situation develops.

Original Source: www.aljazeera.com