A Turning Point: The Conclusion of the Kurdish Insurgency in Turkey

The article discusses the historical significance of the potential end of a 40-year Kurdish insurgency in Turkey, influenced by the recent Gaza war. Abdullah Öcalan’s ‘Call for Peace’ may lead to the PKK’s disbandment without military means. The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with Turkish concerns over Kurdish influence potentially being utilized against its interests by Israel, amidst broader regional turmoil involving Iran and Syria.

The conclusion of a 40-year Kurdish insurgency emerges as a pivotal moment in the context of the Gaza war that commenced in October 2023, reshaping the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. The date of 27 February is poised to hold historical significance for Turkey, the region, and the global order. A potential upcoming demise of the al-Assad regime may empower Kurdish factions, which could be strategically exploited by Israel to counter Turkey’s influence. This has catalyzed negotiations with Abdullah Öcalan, leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).

The anticipated disbandment of the PKK reflects an unprecedented situation in the century-long history of the Turkish republic; a Kurdish insurgency could potentially conclude through voluntary steps rather than military engagements. Öcalan, serving a life sentence on İmralı Island, recently issued a ‘Call for Peace and Democratic Society’ signaling his organization to lay down arms. Subsequently, the PKK expressed compliance, indicating a significant transformation in the group’s trajectory.

Süleyman Demirel, a former Turkish President and Prime Minister, categorized the PKK-led movement as the most significant and sustainable Kurdish insurgency against the Turkish state, jeopardizing national integrity. Over the decades, the denial of Kurdish identity has led to armed revolts, notably from 1925 to 1937, which were met with violent repression. Since its inception in 1984, under Öcalan’s leadership, the PKK has engaged in numerous confrontations, especially following the group’s capture aided by international intelligence services.

Öcalan’s ideological evolution during imprisonment enhanced his influence, notably over Syrian Kurds who accrued substantial territory amidst the Syrian civil war and received U.S. support against ISIS. The changing dynamics in the Middle East post the Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023, have further complicated the regional security landscape, presenting new challenges for Turkey.

With Iran’s weakening hold and a new U.S. administration that leans toward pro-Israel policies, Turkey faces new strategic uncertainties. Ankara has expressed concerns that Israel might leverage the increasingly empowered Kurdish forces to undermine Turkish interests. As the Syrian regime weakens, Turkey seeks to align its strategies to navigate these challenges while maintaining regional dominance.

Historically, Israel has maintained relations with the Kurdish population since the 1960s, and this connection poses significant risks for Turkey, as a strong Israeli-Kurdish alliance may destabilize its territorial claims. The Kurdish autonomy achieved in Iraq and the establishment of a self-governing entity in northern Syria reflect evolving regional dynamics. Amidst the potential for further upheaval in Iran, the Kurdish ambitions for independence may rise, obligating Turkey to proactively engage in this evolving landscape.

In summation, the conclusion of the Kurdish insurgency signifies a transformative juncture for Turkey, influenced by recent regional shifts stemming from the Gaza conflict. Abdullah Öcalan’s leadership and the PKK’s impending disbandment exemplify a significant pivot away from violence towards a political resolution. As the geopolitical landscape continues to evolve, particularly concerning U.S.-Israel relations, Turkey must navigate these developments carefully to protect its national interests and territorial integrity.

Original Source: www.realinstitutoelcano.org