India Expected to Experience Normal Monsoon This Season, Experts Say

Experts forecast an impending normal south-west monsoon for India from June to September due to the absence of El Niño conditions, enhancing crop prospects. The IMD will soon provide its initial predictions, supporting expectations of favorable rainfall and agricultural benefits following last year’s above-normal rainfall.

According to a prominent weather scientist, India is anticipated to experience a ‘normal’ south-west monsoon this year from June to September, owing to the absence of El Niño conditions. Akshay Deoras, a research scientist at the National Centre for Atmosphere Science, University of Reading, indicated that forecasts from the UK Met Office and other agencies suggest average to above-average rainfall. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is expected to announce its initial monsoon predictions shortly.

If predictions from foreign weather agencies materialize, India will enjoy its second consecutive year of normal rainfall in 2025, following below-normal precipitation in 2023. During the monsoon season, approximately 70 to 75% of the nation’s annual precipitation occurs, significantly benefiting crop irrigation and water reservoir levels.

Deoras remarked that, per the models, India is positioned for an overall normal monsoon season, primarily due to the lack of adverse impacts from the El Niño Southern Oscillation. However, he expressed caution, noting that other sub-seasonal weather factors may affect the onset and development of the monsoon in Kerala, making it premature to assess its timeliness.

The IMD indicated a 75% probability of a transition to a ‘neutral’ El Niño-Southern Oscillation by April 2025, which is likely to support a normal monsoon season. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of IMD, confirmed that the El Niño condition is ruled out for this year’s monsoon. Additionally, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are expected to persist this season.

Last year, India experienced 8% above-normal rainfall compared to the long period average, contrasting with the below-normal and sporadic rainfall observed in 2023 despite earlier predictions for normal rainfall. Nearly half of India’s farmland relies on monsoon rains for cultivating kharif crops, which include paddy, pulses, and oilseeds, while adequate rains also support soil moisture for rabi or winter crops such as wheat and pulses.

Typically, the southwest monsoon commences over Kerala by June 1, gradually spreading across the nation by early July, with withdrawal from northwest India beginning mid-September and concluding by October 15.

In summary, experts predict that India will experience a normal south-west monsoon this year, largely due to the absence of El Niño conditions. The previous year’s more favorable rainfall marks a recovery from the previous year’s deficits. This situation bodes well for agriculture, as the timely onset of the monsoon is crucial for the kharif and rabi crop seasons, reflecting the vital role of monsoons in India’s agricultural productivity.

Original Source: www.financialexpress.com