Analysis of 2025 State Primary Election Competitiveness

• The percentage of open seats in 2025 was the lowest since 2011.
• Contested primaries this year were at 17.6%, below the historical average.
• Only three incumbents were defeated in state legislative elections in New Jersey.
• Virginia held several primaries including statewide offices like governor.
• Wisconsin had a non-partisan primary for educational leadership.

2025 Primaries Show Record Low Open Seats

Examining the state primary elections of 2025 reveals some interesting trends. The data from Ballotpedia shows that the number of open seats at just 5.9% is the smallest share recorded in any odd year since 2011. This drop in open seats indicates potentially less opportunity for new candidates to vie for positions, which could lead to decreased dynamism in the elections.

Incumbents and Contest Dynamics in Primaries

In the realm of competitiveness, the primaries this year illustrated a 17.6% rate of contested primaries, which is notably lower than the historical average of 19.7% spanning from 2011 to 2023. The analysis also included incumbency statistics, indicating that 22.4% of incumbents were contested, which, while above the average of 21.8% from the previous seven cycles, still signals a landscape that favours incumbent stability. In New Jersey, for example, the primaries for governor and the General Assembly saw no incumbents lose their spots in state executive races, although in the state legislative primaries, three Democratic incumbents faced defeat.

State-by-State Competition And Its Impact

The three states of New Jersey, Virginia, and Wisconsin collectively held 51 primaries, with a total of 289 seats available across elections. To put this into perspective, only 185 total seats were actually contested this year. In varying capacities, Virginia’s primaries included races for governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general, while Wisconsin featured a non-partisan primary for superintendent of public instruction. The competition among incumbents was stark in New Jersey, where three out of 172 incumbents lost their bids for re-election in the state legislative primaries, showcasing a notable but limited challenge to established political figures.

In summary, the 2025 state primary elections revealed a significant decline in the percentage of open seats, along with lower rates of contested primaries compared to historical averages. Several incumbents faced challenges but the overall incumbent retention rate remained high with minimal losses. The context of these elections not only reflects the competitiveness but also sets the stage for future political landscapes in these states.