Can the US Help Broker New Israeli Ties to Lebanon, Syria?

• US seeks to broker new ties between Israel and Lebanon, Syria.
• Prime Minister Netanyahu claims victory opens paths for more peace accords.
• New billboards promote the Abraham Alliance in Israel amid ongoing conflicts.
• Negotiations with Syria hinge on historical claims over the Golan Heights.
• Lebanon’s complex political landscape complicates peace efforts between nations.

Renewed Interest in Middle East Diplomacy

Renewed Interest in Middle East Diplomacy Diplomacy in the Middle East is experiencing a resurgence, particularly following the recent, albeit brief, 12-day conflict involving Iran, Israel, and the United States. As Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated, the outcome of this confrontation has paved the way for potential expansion of peace agreements in the region. New billboards have started cropping up across Israel, depicting prominent Arab leaders alongside President Donald Trump, all under the promotional notion of “The Abraham Alliance: It’s Time for a New Middle East.” This campaign aims to draw attention to the prospects of brokering relationships with Lebanon and Syria, despite the complex histories behind those nations. The concept of the so-called “Abraham Accords” came into the spotlight back in 2020, when the US facilitated diplomatic normalization deals between Israel and several Arab entities, including the UAE and Bahrain. However, it is essential to remember that the context surrounding potential agreements with Syria and Lebanon is inherently more complicated. As Neil Quilliam, of Chatham House, pointed out, the nations involved in the original accords weren’t mired in long-standing conflicts, unlike the situation with Israel, Syria, and Lebanon, where decades of hostility shape interactions.

Assessing the Feasibility of Peace with Syria

Assessing the Feasibility of Peace with Syria Syria, for its part, has been officially at war with Israel since the Six-Day War of 1967, when Israel seized control of the Golan Heights, a strategic plateau that Syria has long sought to reclaim. Despite US recognition of Israel’s sovereignty over the area during Trump’s presidency, true normalization poses a formidable challenge. With the recent changes in Syria’s leadership—namely the rise of Ahmed al-Sharaa, who has shown a willingness to discuss peace—there may be a glimmer of hope. However, Syria has made it clear that negotiations can only commence under the premises that Israel adheres to existing agreements and withdraws from areas it currently occupies. Interestingly, US special envoy Tom Barrack relayed that President al-Sharaa does not harbor animosity toward Israel and seeks to establish peace at the border. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar echoed this sentiment, expressing an interest in including Syria into the Abraham Accords framework. However, he firmly stated that control over the Golan Heights would remain a non-negotiable aspect of any potential agreement, complicating the process further. As Burcu Ozcelik from the Royal United Services Institute noted, even a basic agreement to refrain from aggression could yield significant changes in regional dynamics, even if a full peace treaty remains elusive.

Challenges to Peace with Lebanon

Challenges to Peace with Lebanon Unlike the ongoing discussions regarding Syria, Lebanon’s situation appears far more bleak when it comes to peace talks. Neil Quilliam elaborated, noting that Lebanon’s President Aoun and his political circle lack the ability to bring about peace due to the strong domestic opposition they would face. The aftermath of the October 7, 2023 attack on Israel by Hamas triggered Hezbollah’s military intervention, escalating tensions into full-blown conflict lasting several weeks. Israel’s military responses have diminished Hezbollah’s grip on power, yet the damages inflicted upon southern Lebanon and Beirut are staggering, with casualties numbering over 3000. Even though a ceasefire has temporarily halted the violence, vital conditions from this deal, such as the withdrawal of Israeli forces from occupied territories, have yet to be fulfilled. This ongoing tension shows the difficulty Israel faces in constructing peace with an adversary that simultaneously lacks strong governance and is embroiled in internal conflict. Thus, as Quilliam suggests, with Hezbollah unwilling to disarm and retain its military capabilities, the prospect of peace remains remote.

The US’s Diplomatic Strategy

The US’s Diplomatic Strategy The United States seems to be exerting a concerted effort to promote peace in the region. The lifting of certain sanctions on Syria and the overarching desire for peace talks reflect the Trump administration’s strategic alignment with its allies, including Israel and key Gulf States. Kelly Petillo from the European Council on Foreign Relations posits that Trump aims to earn a Nobel Peace Prize through achievements in Middle Eastern diplomacy, even if such ambitions currently lack substantial diplomatic skill. Observers note that the bigger challenges lie in addressing Israel’s aggressive policies and ensuring human rights are not undermined in the surrounding countries based on American actions.

In summary, while there is a renewed interest in forging new ties between Israel and its neighbors like Syria and Lebanon, the road to peace remains fraught with challenges. The expectations surrounding the Abraham Accords underscore the complexities of regional conflicts that cannot be overlooked. Ultimately, the diplomatic pushes led by the US, despite their ambition, face significant hurdles in achieving lasting stability in the Middle East.