Tropical Cyclone Chido: A Historic Devastation for Mayotte

Tropical cyclone Chido ravaged Mayotte on December 14, producing winds over 200 km/h and heavy rainfall. It was the strongest cyclone in 90 years, prompting a state of national mourning in France. Despite timely warnings, the storm caused substantial loss of life and damage. The cyclone subsequently affected Mozambique and Malawi but raised questions about the influence of climate change on such events.

Tropical cyclone Chido struck Mayotte on December 14, unleashing winds exceeding 200 kilometers per hour and gusts surpassing 225 kilometers per hour. This event marked the most powerful storm to impact Mayotte in over 90 years, according to Météo-France. In addition to the strong winds, Chido brought torrential rains of 176 mm within just 12 hours and generated dangerous sea conditions with wave heights averaging over 5 meters. The cyclone’s intensity was such that it caused damage to Météo-France’s observational structures.

In response to the devastation, French President Emmanuel Macron declared a national day of mourning. A significant emergency and relief effort was initiated, as initial assessments indicated that hundreds of residents may have perished due to the cyclone’s impact on the small island, which is ill-prepared for storms of this magnitude, notably housing many informal dwellings. Despite timely alerts from Météo-France more than 50 hours prior, the loss of life remained substantial.

The cyclone’s trajectory was unusual, as it passed closely by Madagascar, which typically influences cyclone strength. Instead, Chido made a direct hit on Mayotte as an intense tropical cyclone, with its eye fully traversing the island. Following its landfall on Mayotte, Chido continued its path, making landfall in Mozambique on December 15, where it began to weaken but still brought heavy rainfall to Mozambique and Malawi.

Météo-France commented on the unclear connection between climate change and Chido’s characteristics. “The impacts of Chido are above all due to its track and the direct hit on Mayotte,” the agency stated. They further noted, “Our current state of knowledge does not allow us to draw any conclusions about the role of climate change on the track of the cyclone and on its intensity.”

As Météo-France serves as the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre for the South-West Indian Ocean, it accurately forecasted the potential for an early start to the 2024-2025 cyclone season in its seasonal outlook issued on October 31. Previously, significant cyclone activity typically commenced in January during the last three seasons, but the forecast indicated possible impacts before the end of 2024. The upcoming cyclone season is anticipated to witness near-normal to above-normal activity, predicting 9 to 13 systems, of which 4 to 7 may reach the tropical cyclone stage.

In summary, tropical cyclone Chido has proven to be a catastrophic event for Mayotte, resulting in significant damage and loss of life. Authorities quickly mobilized emergency responses while Météo-France confirmed that such intense cyclones are extremely rare in the region. The potential implications of climate change remain uncertain, yet forecasts indicate an active cyclone season ahead for the South-West Indian Ocean.

Original Source: wmo.int