Potential Cyclone Formation in Australia Signals Busy Wet Season Ahead

A tropical low is likely to form off WA’s north coast, potentially becoming a cyclone named Courtney or Dianne. The Bureau of Meteorology has confirmed nine cyclones this season, indicating a highly active cyclone period, with the potential for significant rainfall across northern Australia in the coming weeks.

Australia is anticipating the possible formation of a tropical cyclone within a week, due to a weather system developing off the northwest coast. This system is expected to create a tropical low approximately 500 kilometers off Western Australia’s (WA) north coast by Friday, with potential cyclonic development as it approaches the coast. Since December, the Bureau of Meteorology has recorded nine tropical cyclones, which is the highest frequency in three years.

Should the tropical low intensify into a cyclone, it will be designated with the name Courtney or Dianne, dependent upon the status of another system near the Cocos Islands. A significant influx of humid air from the north is forecasted to bring heavy rainfall across northern Australia over the next fortnight, following recent heavy precipitation, such as 301 millimeters in Townsville, marking its heaviest fall since January 1998.

The Northern Territory (NT) and WA’s Kimberley region are also expected to experience increased rainfall as the monsoon trough returns, which typically contributes to the emergence of tropical lows and cyclones. An ongoing pattern of heightened tropical activity is likely to persist for several weeks and may yield a significantly active cyclone season this year, which might be one of the busiest recorded since 2004.

The monsoon trough, characterized by converging moist winds, is crucial in the development of tropical cyclones in Australia. Presently, this system has triggered a tropical low south of the Cocos Islands, although it does not pose a threat to the Australian mainland. Another system is expected to create a tropical low closer to WA’s shores by Friday, likely developing over warm water temperatures that exceed 31 degrees Celsius, contributing to a possibility of cyclonic formation.

The Bureau confirmed that the current cyclone season, with nine cyclones recorded since December, is approaching the long-term average of 11. February alone recorded five tropical cyclones, the highest count since January 2011, highlighting an unusual level of activity this season. The likelihood of the WA low developing into a cyclone is currently estimated at 10 percent for this weekend, with models suggesting an increase to 30 percent by early next week.

Forecast models indicate that the tropical low may proceed parallel to the Pilbara coast. However, the unpredictability of cyclone forecasts advises caution in ruling out any landfall. While humid air has resulted in increased rainfall across northern Australia, with temperatures previously soaring above 40 degrees Celsius, significant rain, accompanied by thunderstorms, is expected to continue spreading into the weekend.

Some regions in northern Australia could witness rainfall totals exceeding 100 millimeters, particularly in the Kimberley and northern NT. The Bureau’s forecasts for the following two weeks predict an 80 percent likelihood of above-median rainfall across parts of northern Australia, potentially leading to enhanced cyclone activity. The impending wet conditions could result in up to twelve named storms this autumn, constituting the busiest cyclone season in 19 years.

In summary, Australia prepares for the possible formation of a tropical cyclone off the northwest coast. Given an active cyclone season with nine storms recorded, rainfall is expected to increase across northern regions, including the NT and Queensland. Long-term forecasts indicate this trend is likely to persist into early April, potentially leading to further cyclonic developments, and may result in the busiest cyclone season Australia has experienced in 19 years.

Original Source: www.abc.net.au