2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Anticipated Drivers of Storm Activity

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1st. Colorado State University’s tropical outlook is set for April 3rd, analyzing key factors like warm sea surface temperatures, the transition to a neutral climate state, and triggers from the West African monsoon affecting storm activity.

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will commence on June 1st, and the initial tropical outlook from Colorado State University will be available on April 3rd. This preliminary assessment will focus on varying environmental conditions that may influence storm activity during the upcoming season, particularly for Canadians.

Warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs), at 27°C or above, are essential for the development of tropical storms. Although SSTs in the main development region are currently above normal, they are not as warm as in previous years. However, an active season requires more than just elevated SSTs; favorable moisture levels and weak upper-level winds are also critical factors. The likelihood of these conditions coinciding remains uncertain.

Notably, the La Nina phenomenon is expected to decline further, leading towards a neutral phase this summer. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) anticipates that this neutral state may persist, impacting the hurricane tally. Historically, neutral states have produced a mix of hurricane seasons, resulting in three active, one typical, and two quieter years since 1996.

Additionally, for tropical storms to form, a trigger is necessary. These triggers are predominantly found off the coast of West Africa and are influenced by the strength of the West African monsoon. An increase in systems emerging from this area usually correlates with a heightened number of Atlantic tropical storms.

Stay tuned to our updates on April 3rd for an in-depth forecast concerning the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.

As the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season approaches, various factors are under consideration in the forecast, including sea surface temperatures, the shift to a neutral state from La Nina, and potential triggers identified in the West African monsoon. The upcoming outlook on April 3rd will provide valuable insights into what Canadians can anticipate, following historical trends in similar climatic conditions.

Original Source: www.theweathernetwork.com