Tropical Cyclone Courtney Develops in Australian Region, Forecasts and Implications

Tropical Cyclone Courtney has formed as a Category 1 cyclone northwest of Australia. The cyclone, which originated from a tropical low near Bali, is projected to move westward without significantly impacting land areas. This season has seen an increase in severe cyclone activity, attributed to record warm sea temperatures. Upcoming developments related to the MJO may further influence regional weather patterns, while DTN APAC offers expert forecasting and alerting services to assist businesses during such events.

Tropical Cyclone Courtney has recently developed into a Category 1 system as of early Wednesday, March 26, marking the eighth tropical cyclone of the current Australian season. Initially originating from a tropical low located south of Bali, Courtney gradually progressed west-southwest and was officially named by the Bureau of Meteorology. At the time of designation, it was situated approximately 900 kilometres northwest of Exmouth.

Current forecasts indicate that Tropical Cyclone Courtney will move quickly to the west due to a high-pressure ridge located to the south. It is expected to pass within 500 kilometres to the south of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands on Friday; however, it is not anticipated to directly impact the island communities or the Australian mainland.

This cyclone season has shown a notable surge in activity. After the initial formation of Tropical Cyclone Robyn in late November, the following months displayed a limited number of tropical lows. However, between mid-January and early April, six out of the total eight cyclones formed, all achieving Category 3 intensity or higher. This trend reflects a significant increase, as approximately 75% of cyclones this season reached severe intensity, contrasting with the usual seasonal average.

The escalation in vigorous cyclone activity correlates with the exceptionally warm sea temperatures surrounding Australia, particularly in the north. Monthly sea surface temperatures have broken records from October 2024 to February 2025, which has likely contributed to the intense cyclone formation.

In the coming week, heightened tropical activity is anticipated due to a strong influence from the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), prompting a potential increase in system developments across northern Australia. A mass of convective clouds off the northwest Kimberley coast is on the verge of forming tropical low 28U, which has a moderate chance of intensifying into a tropical cyclone from Friday to Sunday, despite challenges due to its proximity to land.

Regardless of the potential cyclonic development, the associated monsoonal winds will likely result in significant rainfall within the Kimberley region, with totals expected to reach between 100-200mm and isolated areas possibly exceeding 300-400mm. The MJO system is projected to weaken as it shifts northeast in early April, potentially limiting further cyclone formations, although tropical cyclones can occur at any time in the region.

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In summary, Tropical Cyclone Courtney has developed as a Category 1 system in the Australian cyclone season, with forecasts suggesting a quick western movement. A significant portion of this season’s cyclones have reached severe intensity due to anomalous warm sea temperatures. Upcoming weeks indicate increased tropical activity, potentially leading to further cyclonic developments. DTN APAC remains equipped to provide vital weather intelligence and safeguarding solutions for businesses facing these severe weather patterns.

Original Source: apac.dtn.com