Anticipating The Next Major Earthquake: The Risks and Preparedness

A recent 7.7 magnitude earthquake in Myanmar raises awareness of seismic risks, particularly “The Big One,” likely to occur in the Cascadia Subduction Zone. Historical earthquakes include the Valdivia Earthquake in 1960, the Indian Ocean earthquake of 2004, and the Tohoku-Sendai quake in 2011. Experts warn of potential devastating impacts in the U.S., India, and the Philippines, but exact timing for these events remains unknown.

A recent earthquake measuring 7.7 on the Richter scale in Myanmar has caused extensive damage and loss of life, impacting not only Mandalay but also neighboring countries. As casualties continue to rise, this event has highlighted the relentless power of nature and the importance of preparedness against such disasters. This calamity has also reignited discussions about the anticipated earthquake known as “The Big One,” which is expected to occur but remains undated.

The most significant earthquake recorded is the Valdivia Earthquake, which struck Chile on May 22, 1960, registering between 9.4 and 9.6 on the Richter scale. This catastrophic event lasted approximately ten minutes and generated tsunami waves that impacted multiple oceanic regions. The estimated death toll ranges from 1,000 to 6,000 individuals, while the full extent of the damage remains unquantified due to its vastness.

The 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake, measuring 9.2-9.3, is considered one of the most lethal in recent history, causing over 200,000 fatalities across various countries. Furthermore, the Tohoku-Sendai earthquake in Japan on March 11, 2011, recorded a 9.1 magnitude and led to significant hazards at the Fukushima Nuclear Facility.

The term “The Big One” was initially coined to predict a major earthquake along the San Andreas Fault in California, extensively discussed in a 1953 geological paper. Research has suggested that earthquakes measuring between 7 and 8 on the Richter scale could potentially devastate highly populated areas like Los Angeles and San Francisco. This concept gained traction through cinematic portrayals in films such as “Earthquake” (1974) and “San Andreas” (2015), showcasing potential catastrophes along this fault line.

Recent geological findings suggest that the anticipated “Big One” may actually transpire along the Cascadia Subduction Zone, north of the San Andreas. This fault line, stretching from Vancouver, Canada, to Northern California, may experience earthquakes measuring between 8 and 9.2, threatening major cities like Seattle. Despite being of lower magnitude compared to the 1960 Chilean earthquake, the risk to densely populated areas is significant, impacting millions of individuals.

The possible aftermath of an earthquake along the Cascadia Subduction Zone could result in tens of thousands of fatalities and homelessness for millions. Furthermore, destruction of infrastructure could impair rescue operations, compounding the disaster’s impact. This catastrophic scenario is not limited to the U.S., as regions in Canada and beyond may also face repercussions.

While geological experts have consensus on the inevitability of “The Big One,” there is no definitive timeline. Research indicates a 37 percent probability that an earthquake could occur in the Cascadia region by 2060. The last significant quake in this area occurred in the early 1700s, and while some view the forecasts as alarmist, the potential for a massive earthquake is universally acknowledged.

In addition to U.S. risks, there is concern regarding potential earthquakes in other global regions. For instance, a large earthquake measuring 8 on the Richter scale could impact northern India, particularly urban centers like Delhi and Chandigarh, resulting in far greater casualties than those anticipated from the U.S. scenario. The Marikina Valley fault system near Manila, Philippines, is another area poised for potential seismic activity, with predictions of a 7-magnitude event that could lead to significant loss of life. However, similar to the Cascadia Subduction Zone, specific timing for these catastrophic events remains elusive.

In summary, the recent earthquake in Myanmar has underscored the unpredictable and devastating nature of seismic events. While historic records highlight some of the most powerful earthquakes, current geological studies suggest significant risks associated with the Cascadia Subduction Zone, The Himalayas, and the Marikina Valley fault system. Preparedness is essential, and while we know that these catastrophic events are possible, the timing remains uncertain.

Original Source: indianexpress.com