AccuWeather Predicts Near to Above Average 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

AccuWeather forecasts a near to above average Atlantic hurricane season in 2025, with expectations of 13-18 named storms and a potential increase of direct impacts on the U.S. Residents are advised to prepare and remain vigilant. Key factors include ocean temperatures, ENSO phases, and historical patterns indicating heightened risk for the northeast Caribbean.

AccuWeather meteorologists have projected a “near to above average” Atlantic hurricane season for 2025, according to a report issued last Friday. Residents of the Virgin Islands are advised to prepare adequately and remain informed about potential threats as the hurricane season approaches, officially running from June 1 to November 30.

The report anticipates between 13 to 18 named storms, including 7 to 10 hurricanes and 3 to 5 major hurricanes classified at Category 3 or higher, with a likelihood of 3 to 6 direct impacts on the United States. Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert, emphasized a 20 percent chance for exceeding 18 named storms this year.

Several factors contribute to this forecast. Notably, anomalous sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and the position of the Bermuda-Azores High, which influences cyclone steering, are pivotal. Furthermore, the frequency of tropical wave activity emanating from the west coast of Africa plays a critical role.

The AccuWeather update highlights the implications of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles on tropical development. During La Niña conditions, wind shear typically decreases, fostering cyclone formation, whereas El Niño raises wind shear, inhibiting storm development. NOAA mentions that these cycles, along with ENSO-neutral conditions, can significantly impact global weather patterns.

According to DaSilva, while La Niña conditions currently prevail, a shift to ENSO-neutral is expected by summer. He indicated that both La Niña and neutral phases could facilitate active seasons but anticipated varying degrees of storm activity, with La Niña showing a stronger correlation to an increase in storm frequency.

DaSilva elaborated on factors affecting tropical wave emergence from Africa. A stronger African Easterly Jet, typically associated with La Niña, could generate more robust tropical waves, enhancing the likelihood of storm development. He expressed that during a neutral ENSO phase, the jet’s strength can also impact dryness and moisture content in the Atlantic.

The role of sea surface temperatures remains critical, as they are currently above historical averages throughout the Atlantic basin. Elevated temperatures generally correlate with lower surface pressure, which can increase storm development potential. Consequently, the high ocean heat content could lead to rapid intensification of tropical cyclones.

DaSilva further explained the influence of the Bermuda-Azores High on storm trajectories. The high’s positioning can dictate whether storms will veer towards the Caribbean or be diverted out to sea, depending on its strength and location throughout the season.

AccuWeather’s forecasting process involved analyzing years with similar atmospheric conditions to those anticipated for 2025. DaSilva specifically noted parallels to the 2017 hurricane season, which experienced destructive storms, including Irma and Maria, suggesting heightened vulnerability for the northeast Caribbean this year.

Residents are urged not to become complacent despite long intervals without hurricane impacts. DaSilva stresses the importance of having a hurricane preparedness plan and remaining aware of emergency management protocols, especially considering potential changes in recovery procedures post-pandemic.

As hurricane season approaches, additional forecasts will be published leading up to June 1. However, tropical developments may occur outside this timeframe, and individuals should stay vigilant. Relevant weather information can be accessed via the VITEMA website and the National Weather Service, alongside daily forecasts shared through the Source Weather Page.

In summary, AccuWeather anticipates a near to above average 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, encouraging residents of the Virgin Islands to prepare adequately. Key factors such as sea surface temperatures, the Bermuda-Azores High, and ENSO phases are expected to influence storm development. Historical patterns suggest an increased risk of impacts in the northeast Caribbean, solidifying the necessity for preparedness as the season approaches.

Original Source: stcroixsource.com