Syria’s Uncertain Future: Navigating Change and Challenges After Assad

Syria’s transition from the Assad regime brings cautious optimism, as new challenges emerge for the government of President Ahmad Al-Sharaa. Key issues include economic hardship and institutional collapse, yet the absence of widespread sectarian violence is seen as a positive sign. Diplomatic efforts with regional allies and a shift in international relations may present opportunities for stabilization and development.

Syria’s shift away from Assad’s long-standing rule presents both challenges and opportunities, as outlined by Ghassan Ibrahim, a Syria analyst in London. In the Arab News show “Frankly Speaking,” he expressed cautious optimism regarding the new transitional government led by President Ahmad Al-Sharaa, acknowledging the numerous difficulties it faces. The situation is complex, as institutions remained dysfunctional at Assad’s departure, leaving the country in a dire state.

Among the pressing issues that the transitional government confronts are institutional breakdown, widespread poverty, insecurity, and ongoing sanctions that devastate the economy. Ibrahim notes that over 90% of the populace lives below the poverty line, with essential services crippled. Despite these challenges, he highlighted a growing hope within the country, questioning the government’s ability to procure resources to restore functionality.

Interestingly, the absence of large-scale sectarian violence since Assad’s departure may be seen as an achievement. While minor conflicts have arisen—such as recent killings in the coastal region—these have not escalated into widespread strife. “If we look at the full picture, it is something promising, but it requires a lot of work,” Ibrahim stated.

Al-Sharaa’s recent diplomatic efforts, including his visits to Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are perceived as strategic moves aimed at reestablishing Syria’s position in the region. Ibrahim observed that aligning Syria with nations valuing modernity and stability is essential for its reintegration. He emphasized the need for supportive partnerships to aid Syria in navigating its transition, highlighting the UAE’s potential role in this endeavor.

Despite the beneficial ties, relations with Turkey could complicate matters considerably. Ibrahim warned about the potential risks of Turkish involvement, which could provoke fears among neighboring nations, including Israel. Nevertheless, he noted that the new Syrian leadership seeks to act with restraint and pursue stability, avoiding provocations that might lead to conflict.

The precarious situation in Southern Syria is marked by increased Israeli airstrikes targeting military sites. In response, Ibrahim stated that the Syrian government is adopting a calculated approach to maintain a state presence rather than a militia mentality. He implied that diplomatic channels with Israel should remain open, as stability would ultimately benefit both countries.

While Iran’s influence in Syria is present, it has become increasingly seen as destabilizing. Ibrahim characterizes Tehran’s involvement as counterproductive, suggesting that their legacy has failed to garner support from the Syrian populace. Calls for normalization with Iran hinge on curtailing its export of revolutionary ideals, indicating a desire for a new era in Syrian-Iranian relations.

The issue of sanctions presents another layer of complexity. Ibrahim asserted that current sanctions are detrimental, primarily affecting ordinary citizens rather than the targeted regime. He expressed concern that unless these sanctions are lifted, popular discontent might result in unrest. The recent violence in Latakia and Tartous exemplifies the fragile state of security that the new government must navigate.

The composition of Al-Sharaa’s cabinet has also faced scrutiny, with some minorities believing their voices are unrepresented. Ibrahim stated that while striving for unity within the government, achieving an inclusive transitional leadership remains challenging. He acknowledged the necessity for Al-Sharaa to balance various interests in order to foster a cohesive governmental environment.

In light of ongoing Turkish negotiations for defense pacts, concerns linger regarding foreign interventions in Syrian affairs. Ibrahim reinforced that Syria aims to mediate between Turkey and the Kurdish forces, avoiding any engagement in proxy conflicts. His perspective suggests potential for ongoing dialogue to reach a de-escalation agreement in the near future.

While seeking Western diplomatic engagement, Syria maintains connections with Russia, recognized as a pragmatic partner in the region. Ibrahim believes that Russia could play a pivotal role in facilitating agreements with Israel, given its favorable relations with both Syria and Israel.

Ibrahim concluded with remarks on a recent warning about Israeli aggression attracting extremist actors. He clarified that Damascus seeks to dissociate from being a launchpad for attacks and aims for a normalized relationship with Israel. His insights reflect a significant paradigm shift in Syria’s approach towards regional stability, noting that all Syrians aspire for a future characterized by development, free trade, and normalization with various countries, including Israel.

In summary, Syria, under its new transitional government led by President Ahmad Al-Sharaa, faces a landscape fraught with challenges yet also ripe with opportunity. The critical issues of economic hardship, institutional dysfunction, and the presence of international sanctions overshadow potential advancements. Nonetheless, the avoidance of sectarian conflict, strategic diplomatic engagements, and a shift in governmental dynamics indicate a cautious optimism for the future of Syria. The path ahead is complex and requires thoughtful navigation to achieve stabilization and reintegration into the regional community.

Original Source: www.arabnews.pk