Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Rainfall and Flooding in Africa

A study by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) attributes severe rainfall and flooding in Sudan, Nigeria, Niger, Cameroon, and Chad to anthropogenic climate change, indicating a 5 to 20 percent increase in rainfall intensity due to global warming. The floods this year led to 2,000 fatalities and the displacement of millions. The report highlights future risks if global temperatures rise further, emphasizing the need for improved water governance and infrastructure resilience amid existing socio-economic challenges.

A recent study by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) has linked devastating rainfall and severe floods in five African nations—Sudan, Nigeria, Niger, Cameroon, and Chad—to anthropogenic climate change. This comprehensive analysis, released on October 23, 2024, indicates that global warming has intensified extreme rainfall during this rainy season by approximately 5 to 20 percent across the Niger and Lake Chad basins. An international team of scientists from Sudan, Egypt, Kenya, the Netherlands, Sweden, and the UK conducted the study, which reports that the catastrophic floods this year resulted in the deaths of around 2,000 individuals and displaced millions more, as reported by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). The study highlights that the frequency of intense rainfall events has increased in certain regions of Sudan by approximately 18 percent over the last four decades, attributing this change to climate change driven by human activity. Consequently, such extremes may no longer be rare and are anticipated to become more prevalent with ongoing global warming. If global temperatures were to rise by 2°C, even more intense rainfall is expected in the future, necessitating preparation for potentially severe weather events surpassing the intensity witnessed this year. The ramifications of these extreme weather events are compounded by multifaceted challenges, including persistent conflict, large-scale displacement of populations, deteriorating public health conditions, severe food insecurity, and escalating living costs. Vulnerable communities are particularly at risk, especially those facing conflicts and extensive displacement, as flood events have notably degraded access to fundamental utilities. In West and Central Africa, the destruction of critical infrastructure from flooding has exacerbated the spread of waterborne diseases, notably cholera, which has resulted in over 350 fatalities in Nigeria according to recent estimates. The WWA report underscores the urgent need for improved maintenance of dams and the establishment of effective early warning systems. Furthermore, the 2024 floods in Sudan have shed light on significant challenges associated with water governance and adaptation, particularly concerning shared water resources in the region. In summary, the report articulates how ongoing conflict and fragility are intensifying vulnerabilities in the face of exacerbated climate risks, which are intertwined with poverty, rapid urbanization, and deteriorating infrastructure.

The study conducted by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) is crucial in understanding the impact of anthropogenic climate change on weather patterns in Africa. The study came to light following a series of severe floods that affected several countries, leading to considerable loss of life and extensive displacement. The scientists involved emphasized the correlation between rising global temperatures and increased rainfall intensity in these regions, particularly noting the historical increase in extreme rainfall events over the past four decades. This research serves as a critical warning regarding the prospective increase in frequency and severity of such climatic extremes due to ongoing global warming, positioning communities to adapt to these potentially catastrophic changes.

In conclusion, the shocking floods across five African countries this year serve as a stark reminder of the profound impacts of climate change on vulnerable regions. The study by WWA emphasizes the urgent need for proactive measures in water governance, infrastructure maintenance, and adaptation strategies to mitigate the risks associated with future extreme weather events. Without targeted interventions, the challenges posed by exacerbated climate conditions, alongside existing socio-economic vulnerabilities, will only escalate, undermining stability and public health across these nations.

Original Source: www.downtoearth.org.in