Above-Normal Rainfall Forecast for the Greater Horn of Africa: June to September 2024

The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre forecasts above-normal rainfall for the Greater Horn of Africa from June to September 2024, affecting several countries including Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, South Sudan, and Sudan. This period is critical, contributing substantially to annual rainfall. Similar patterns in the past have led to flooding concerns, particularly in South Sudan and Sudan. Accurate seasonal forecasts are vital for decision-making in agriculture, health, and water resource management.

The Greater Horn of Africa is set to experience above-normal rainfall from June to September 2024, according to the forecast provided by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), recognized as a World Meteorological Organization (WMO) regional climate center. This expected precipitation will affect several nations, including Djibouti, Eritrea, central and northern Ethiopia, as well as parts of western and coastal Kenya, much of Uganda, South Sudan, and Sudan. This rainy season is critical, as it contributes significantly to the annual rainfall in the region—over 90% in the northern areas and approximately 40% in the southern regions. The anticipated wetter-than-normal conditions draw parallels to the climatic events observed in 1998 and 2010, raising concerns for possible flooding, particularly in South Sudan and Sudan, as highlighted by Dr. Guleid Artan, the Director of ICPAC. Countries that recently faced severe flooding—including Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, the United Republic of Tanzania, and parts of Ethiopia, Somalia, and Uganda—are expected to transition into a dry season during this period. Seasonal climate outlooks play a crucial role in guiding decision-making across various sectors such as agriculture, healthcare, and water resource management, and they are part of the broader efforts aligned with the Early Warnings for All initiative introduced by the WMO. The forecast was presented at the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum, a gathering that includes climate scientists, governmental and non-governmental organizations, and representatives from climate-sensitive sectors. For more than two decades, the WMO has backed these regional climate outlook forums, which provide timely climate forecasts and information essential for protecting lives and livelihoods while supporting critical sectors like agriculture, food security, and disaster risk reduction. In accordance with WMO’s established guidelines, ICPAC has utilized an objective method for seasonal forecasts by leveraging initialized seasonal predictions from nine Global Producing Centres (GPCs) and employing three calibration techniques to enhance forecast accuracy. An early to normal onset of rainfall is anticipated in regions such as central and northern Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, and South Sudan, while a delayed onset is likely in Djibouti, and parts of eastern and western Ethiopia, along with central and western Sudan, and southern South Sudan. Furthermore, the temperature forecast indicates that much of the region is expected to experience warmer-than-normal conditions, especially in northern Sudan, central and western Ethiopia, as well as Somalia, Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania.

The Greater Horn of Africa experiences significant seasonal rainfall that is crucial for agriculture and food security in the region. The period from June to September typically holds great importance, as it generates the majority of annual rainfall for both northern and southern sectors of the region. Regular monitoring and forecasting of such climatic patterns are essential for planning and mitigating the impacts of extreme weather events like droughts and floods. Recent forecasts indicate a shift toward wetter conditions, which could exacerbate existing vulnerabilities, especially in flood-prone areas. Organizations like the WMO and ICPAC play an integral role in providing climate outlooks to inform strategies for resilience against climate-related challenges.

In conclusion, the forecast of above-normal rainfall from June to September 2024 presents both opportunities and challenges for the Greater Horn of Africa. While this rainfall is vital for agricultural productivity and water resources, it also raises the significant risk of flooding, particularly in regions recovering from previous disasters. The effective dissemination of seasonal climate outlooks will prove essential for enabling stakeholders across various sectors to prepare adequately and respond to the expected climatic shifts.

Original Source: wmo.int