Aleppo’s Unexpected Shift: Syrian Rebels Exploit Russian and Iranian Distraction

A surprise offensive by Syrian rebels in Aleppo has reshuffled the power dynamics in the region, capitalizing on diminished Russian and Iranian support due to their involvements in Ukraine and Israel’s conflict with Iranian proxies. The newly gained territory suggests a resurgence of the conflict that may have far-reaching implications for the Assad regime and the broader Middle East.

The recent assault launched by Syrian rebels in Aleppo has surprised many, resulting in significant territorial gains against government forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad. This unexpected shift in power dynamics can be attributed to the distractions faced by both Russian and Iranian military efforts amidst their engagements in Ukraine and Lebanon. The conflict in Aleppo has reignited, highlighting both the resilience of the rebels and the changing circumstances in the region since the height of the Syrian civil war from 2012 to 2016.

Aleppo, once ravaged by intense fighting, had largely remained under the control of government forces with the backing of Russian air power. Despite a ceasefire established in March 2020 in Idlib, the Syrian regime and its allies have demonstrated weakened military capacity. Recent developments show a rapid shift, where rebels have capitalized on this vulnerability, prompting a swift retreat from government troops. The effectiveness of this surprise offensive raises questions about the reasons behind the noticeable decline in Assad’s military strength, especially after seeming advantage four years earlier.

The diminished support from Russia, previously a dominant force in the region, is notable. Since allocating its military resources to the invasion of Ukraine, Russia has retracted key assets from Syria, including S-300 missile systems. Despite carrying out air strikes in Aleppo and surrounding areas, these actions have failed to impede the rebels’ advances, illustrating a weakened Russian resolve and capability.

Additionally, Israel’s persistent airstrikes against Iranian proxies have further compounded the challenges faced by the Assad regime. The attacks appear to have significantly degraded these proxies, including Hezbollah, leading to a reluctance from Iran to become actively engaged in supporting Assad. Burcu Ozcelik, an expert on Middle Eastern affairs, noted, “Iran proxies have been substantially degraded, and this has an unquestionable impact.” Such dynamics signify a calculated decision from Iran to refrain from deploying military assets that could provoke further hostilities from Israel.

The resurgence of violence in Aleppo is an indicator that the conflict was never fully resolved. Hezbollah and other factions are now reconsidering their military strategies and support operations in the region. The hastiness of the HTS’s offensive underscores their preparations for a military resurgence amidst favorable conditions, potentially reigniting broader hostilities that could affect not just Syria but the surrounding regions as well.

The upheaval in Aleppo marks a critical juncture in the ongoing Syrian civil war, which has been fraught with shifting allegiances and military interventions since 2011. The conflict initially saw rebels and government forces engaging fiercely for control, particularly in key cities like Aleppo. Following significant military accomplishments by the Assad regime, backed substantially by Russian air power, the landscape has been redefined by subsequent geopolitical dynamics, particularly Russia’s focus on Ukraine and Iranian proxy challenges influenced by Israeli military actions in Lebanon. These developments illustrate the complexity of external influences in the Syrian conflict and are pivotal in understanding the latest rebel resurgence.

In conclusion, the unexpected resurgence of Syrian rebels in Aleppo signals a significant shift in the balance of power, driven largely by weakened support for the Assad regime from its allies, Russia and Iran. As these external influences refocus their military efforts elsewhere, the implications for regional stability are profound. With the HTS’s offensive capitalizing on newfound vulnerabilities, the prospect of prolonged conflict looms, indicating that the Syrian war may not conclude anytime soon.

Original Source: www.theguardian.com