Tropical Storm Chido Threatens Madagascar’s Northeastern Coast

Chido, a severe tropical storm, is on track towards Madagascar, likely reaching tropical cyclone strength by December 13. Forecasts indicate possible gale-force winds and heavy rainfall. With the cyclone season underway, further storms may follow in the coming weeks.

Chido, the third named tropical storm of the Southwest Indian Ocean season, formed on December 10 and has rapidly intensified into a severe tropical storm with sustained winds of 95 kilometers per hour. Positioned approximately 500 kilometers east-southeast of Mauritius, Chido is moving westward at around 11 mph, putting it on a potential collision course with northern Madagascar by Friday, December 13. Experts anticipate that as Chido approaches Madagascar, it may reach tropical cyclone strength, potentially bringing gale-force winds and significant rainfall to the region.

Forecast models present varying predictions of Chido’s strength. The storm is likely to maintain a trajectory towards Madagascar, although it could either make landfall or pass closely without direct impact. Wind shear, which may adversely affect the storm’s development, has contributed to discrepancies in forecasts, with one agency indicating maximum wind speeds of 111 kilometers per hour.

The cyclone season for the Southwest Indian Ocean runs from November 15 to April 30, with a peak expected in the coming months as ocean temperatures rise, fostering additional cyclone development. As it stands, with Chido’s potential impact imminent, monitoring will be critical in the days ahead, as the season is not yet at its peak, and more cyclones could still arise.

Tropical cyclones develop over warm ocean waters, which are crucial in determining their strength and path. In the Southwest Indian Ocean, the season lasts from mid-November through April, with a significant increase in storm occurrences typically seen between December and March. Chido represents the third named storm of the season and underscores the challenges in forecasting tropical cyclones due to factors such as wind shear, which can inhibit development. The region frequently experiences cyclones due to its geographic location and oceanic conditions.

In summary, Chido poses a notable threat as it approaches Madagascar, where it may bring destructive weather conditions. The current forecasts highlight the variability in predicting cyclone strength, influenced by wind shear dynamics. As the cyclone season progresses, there is potential for further storms in the coming weeks, necessitating continuous monitoring and preparedness for affected regions.

Original Source: earthsky.org