Tropical Cyclone Chido Devastates Mayotte with Unprecedented Force

On 14 December, Tropical Cyclone Chido struck Mayotte with winds over 200 km/h, causing significant destruction and loss of life, marking the strongest storm in 90 years. The cyclone resulted in torrential rain and dangerous sea conditions. Despite timely warnings, casualties were high due to the island’s unpreparedness. Météo-France notes the impact may not be linked to climate change, emphasizing the rarity of such occurrences.

On 14 December, Tropical Cyclone Chido struck Mayotte with unprecedented strength, exhibiting wind speeds exceeding 200 km/h and gusts surpassing 225 km/h. As reported by Météo-France, this cyclone is the most powerful storm to affect Mayotte in the past 90 years. Accompanying the winds were torrential rainfall, with 176 mm recorded in a mere 12 hours, leading to dangerous sea conditions characterized by waves averaging more than 5 meters in height. The cyclone’s intensity was such that it severely damaged some of Météo-France’s observational structures.

In response to the devastating impacts, French President Emmanuel Macron declared a national day of mourning. Preliminary assessments indicated that hundreds of lives may have been lost on this small island, which is not accustomed to such powerful cyclonic events. The extensive loss of life occurred despite timely alerts issued by Météo-France over 50 hours prior to the landfall. An amber alert was first declared on 13 December at 7 a.m., followed by a red alert later that evening, and a rare violet alert was issued the next morning.

Chido’s trajectory was particularly unusual, as it circumvented Madagascar, which would have typically reduced its strength. Instead, the cyclone maintained its intensity and made a direct landfall on Mayotte, engulfing the island completely. After striking Mayotte, Chido moved on to Mozambique on 15 December, where it resulted in significant rainfall impacts on both Mozambique and Malawi.

While Météo-France acknowledged the event’s rarity, they conveyed uncertainty regarding the influence of climate change on the cyclone’s path and intensity. They stated, “The impacts of Chido are above all due to its track and the direct hit on Mayotte. This is an extremely rare event not seen for 90 years. Our current state of knowledge doesn’t allow us to draw any conclusions about the role of climate change on the track of the cyclone and on its intensity.”

For the 2024-2025 cyclone season prediction, Météo-France had previously indicated in their seasonal forecast, issued on 31 October, an expectation for normal to above-normal cyclone activity in the South-West Indian Ocean. It estimated between nine to thirteen significant systems, of which four to seven could achieve tropical cyclone status, potentially impacting the region earlier than in previous years.

Tropical cyclones are severe atmospheric disturbances characterized by low-pressure centers, intense winds, and heavy rainfall. The Indian Ocean region, particularly around Mayotte, experiences such phenomena, though the island is less familiar with extreme events due to its geographical vulnerability. Climate change has raised concerns over increasing cyclone intensity and frequency, prompting more rigorous meteorological monitoring and forecasting efforts. Météo-France serves as the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre for Tropical Cyclones for the South-West Indian Ocean, providing critical forecasts and warnings to mitigate impacts on vulnerable populations.

Tropical Cyclone Chido has profoundly impacted Mayotte, resulting in significant loss of life and extensive damage due to its unprecedented strength and trajectory. Despite early warnings, the island was ill-prepared for such a direct hit. The cyclone’s rarity and its combination of high winds and heavy rainfall highlight the potential challenges of climate change in cyclone prediction and preparedness. Efforts are underway to enhance monitoring in anticipation of future cyclone seasons as the region braces for possible increased cyclonic activity.

Original Source: wmo.int