Intensive Weather Forecast Testbed Launched in Southern Africa to Enhance Community Preparedness

The WISER EWSA project launches an intensive weather forecasting testbed in Zambia, South Africa, and Mozambique to improve severe weather warnings following recent cyclones. The initiative aims to enhance forecasting methodology and engage local communities through feedback mechanisms. By integrating scientific expertise with community needs, the project aspires to develop sustainable weather services to mitigate the impacts of climate change in vulnerable areas.

On January 30, 2025, the Weather and Climate Information Services (WISER) program initiates its second intensive weather forecasting testbed in Lusaka, Zambia, while simultaneously involving centers in South Africa and Mozambique. This gathering follows the aftermath of Tropical Cyclones Dikeledi and Chido, which caused significant destruction in the region. The testbed aims to enhance the accuracy of weather forecasts and effectively disseminate severe weather warnings to at-risk communities.

Recent cyclones have wreaked havoc in Southern Africa, with Cyclone Dikeledi claiming nearly ten lives and displacing thousands in Madagascar and Mozambique. Cyclone Chido proved even more catastrophic, resulting in over 100 fatalities and hundreds of injuries in Mozambique. These events highlight the increasing frequency of severe weather incidents in the region, exacerbated by climate change, necessitating improved forecasting methods to protect vulnerable populations.

The multidisciplinary team consists of meteorologists, scientists, and community engagement specialists dedicated to improving southern Africa’s meteorological services through the WISER EWSA project. The emphasis is on utilizing testbeds—a proven method for evaluating weather prediction methodologies to benefit local communities actively. This testbed runs from January 30 to February 7, 2025, as part of a broader project that will last until April 2025.

Nowcasting, a crucial focus of the testbed, involves short-term weather forecasting, helping communities prepare for imminent weather threats such as heavy rainfall and thunderstorms. This initiative aligns with the United Nations’ Early Warnings for All (EW4All) initiative, which seeks to provide every individual with protection against hazardous weather events through effective warning systems by 2027.

As irregular weather patterns become more prevalent, enhancing the forecasting capability is imperative. Mr. Ishaam Abader, CEO of the South African Weather Service, emphasizes that the WISER EWSA project aims to support disadvantaged urban communities while enhancing the capabilities of meteorologists. This collaboration ensures timely responses to weather alerts, particularly for at-risk populations, including individuals with disabilities.

Dr. Itzel San Roman Pineda of the UK National Centre for Atmospheric Science notes the growing ownership of the nowcasting processes by the meteorological services in Mozambique, South Africa, and Zambia. As the teams become more confident in operationalizing weather forecasts, challenges remain regarding the timely dissemination of nowcasting messages, which is vital for user preparedness.

In terms of socioeconomic impact, sustaining nowcasting services is resource-intensive, requiring stable internet and efficient communication channels. Dr. Adriaan Perrels from Tyrsky Consulting indicates that the project will evaluate the socioeconomic benefits of the early warning services and explore sustainable funding strategies beyond the project period to ensure continuity in forecasting and warning capabilities.

Community engagement is a critical element of the project, with volunteers actively providing feedback on weather forecasts and raising awareness in their communities. This involvement assists local disaster management efforts and enhances public understanding and engagement with warning systems. The project adopts a co-production approach to increase trust in weather information and ensure it meets the needs of the communities served.

The intensified weather forecast testbed aims to address mounting challenges caused by severe weather events in southern Africa. Recent cyclones illustrate the potential for devastation in the region, underscoring the necessity for improved forecasting and timely warning systems to safeguard vulnerable populations. The WISER EWSA project focuses on collaborative efforts among meteorologists, scientists, and community specialists to undertake effective and sustainable weather forecasting practices. The project arises under the auspices of the WISER program, which aims to bolster weather and climate information services. Recent disasters in the region, such as Cyclones Dikeledi and Chido, have highlighted the urgency of these endeavors, as the region grapples with increasing extreme weather conditions linked to climate change. The integration of community feedback and scientific expertise is pivotal to refining these weather services and enhancing community resilience to climate impacts.

The intensive weather forecast testbed represents a crucial step towards improving forecasting methodologies and enhancing community preparedness in southern Africa. By fostering collaboration among meteorologists and engaging local volunteers, the WISER EWSA project seeks to provide timely and accurate weather warnings that can significantly mitigate the impacts of severe weather events. The focus on co-production and sustainable practices ensures that these efforts can withstand future climate challenges, ultimately benefiting the most vulnerable populations in the region.

Original Source: www.metoffice.gov.uk